There are three types of hedge fund risks: Investment risks, fraud risks and operational risks.
Investment risks: Risks due to the nature of the markets, manager styles,strategies, securities held and derivatives used. Note that a manager’s style does not necessarily define the risks, as two managers pursuing the same style can have very different strategies and risks..
Limited Information on Hedge Fund Risk- Unfortunately, most data for hedge funds only goes back to as far as the late 1980s or early 1990s. This was a stable period in the hedge fund history and so it is difficult to forecast the future risks.
Credit spreads and fixed income funds- The largest factor here is the widening of credit spreads.
Equity Market Risk and Fixed Income Funds-
Widening credit spreads, declines in the stock market and losses at fixed income hedge funds are correlated to one another. This is because most FI hedge funds are short treasury bonds and long corp. bonds. During eco. slowdown, the credit spread widens, and the loss from the short treasury position creates a net loss, esp. if the bond issuers on the long side are also experiencing a financial difficulty.
Equity Market Risks- As mentioned earlier, even though market neutral funds have zero beta and low volatility, they are affected by the market movements. Long/short equity funds have higher standard deviations and higher correlation compared to either market neutral or risk arbitrage funds.
Emerging market funds actually have a low beta in a bullish market and a high beta in a bearish market. So, they don’t fully participate in a high market and suffer great losses in a down market.
Style drift and Leverage- Managers often take on addl. leverage and drift from their style to take advantage of market movements. However, over the long term, this is not a good tactic because they might lack expertise in the area of the new style.
Fraud Risk:
This represents misrepresentation of background qualifications, assets under management etc. by the manager. If the returns are too go to be true, then they probably are.
Operational Risk:
Arises from deficiency in procedures, infrastructure, resources, supervision or trade data.
There are some other types or risks such as counterparty risk, transaction risk and settlement risk.
Measuring Hedge Fund Risk
There are two methods that can be used=
Maximum Drawdown- Is the % decrease in investment value from its peak to its valley. It is the largest drawdown that has ever occurred within a specific time frame. However, it doesn’t give us the probability of the drawdown.
Value at Risk– Not only does it given an estimate of left tail risk , but also the probability. for example- there is a 99% (3 standard deviation minus) chance that the loss will not be more than 12% of its value over the next quarter.
Limitations of using VaR-
- Generally uses historical data, which might not be repeated in the future.
- Uses a normal distribution , whereas hedge fund returns re not normally distributed.
- Computed assuming that the components are additive, whereas they are multiplicative in real life!
Some other methods:
Loss standard deviation- similar to standard deviation, but focuses on the left tail return.
Downside standard deviation- Measures left tail risk, but gives an acceptable threshold of return.
Sortini Ratio= Somewhat like Sharpe ratio, but it uses the downside deviation instead of standard deviation and the minium acceptable return in place of the risk free rate.
Blogged with Flock
Tags: HedgeFunds, Equity Valuation, CFA, Finance, Business